Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 17 October, 17:00 MSK

SaiPa — IFK Helsinki

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Model prediction for 17 October

SaiPa51%

Draw in regulation21%

IFK Helsinki28%

Model estimate at 23:15 MSK

In short

SaiPa are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

SaiPa are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: SaiPa — IFK Helsinki		2.9–2.2
SaiPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)		63%
IFK Helsinki to win (incl. OT and shootout)		37%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap SaiPa
SaiPa goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

SaiPa

08.10JYP1:2
03.10Jokerit3:2
02.10away · KalPa3:4
30.09away · Karpat1:4
26.09away · Tappara4:2

IFK Helsinki

10.10KalPa6:1
08.10away · Jokerit2:3 OT
03.10away · Vaasan Sport3:2 OT
26.09away · Pelicans1:2
25.09JYP3:4

Head to head

04.03.2026IFK Helsinki — SaiPa2:5
14.02.2026SaiPa — IFK Helsinki5:3
25.10.2025SaiPa — IFK Helsinki3:0
20.09.2025IFK Helsinki — SaiPa1:4
02.04.2025SaiPa — IFK Helsinki6:2

Full record: 16 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Kiekko-Espoo	13	5	1	3	4	42–32	+10	20
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	SaiPa	11	5	2	1	3	30–20	+10	20
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Lukko	11	6	1	0	4	29–23	+6	20
13, Relegation play-off	KalPa	11	4	0	1	6	27–29	-2	13
14, Relegation play-off	IFK Helsinki	11	3	1	2	5	31–34	-3	13
15, Relegation play-off	Vaasan Sport	11	3	1	2	5	20–31	-11	13

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

17:00
AssatTPS Turku
5644
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
17:00
IlvesJokerit
7921
1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.0
17:00
KalPaPelicans
6040
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
17:00
KarpatKooKoo
5149
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.9
17:00
LukkoKiekko-Espoo
6040
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
18:30
JukuritTappara
3763
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →