Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Assat — TPS Turku
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Assat are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.
Why
- Assat are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Assat — TPS Turku | 2.5–2.2 | |
| Assat to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 56% | |
| TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 44% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 39% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Assat
- Assat goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Hameenlinna2:3 SO
- 07.10away · Jukurit1:0
- 03.10away · Lukko5:2
- 02.10Lukko0:3
- 26.09away · Hameenlinna4:5 OT
- 10.10away · Tappara3:4 SO
- 03.10JYP4:1
- 30.09away · Kiekko-Espoo2:4
- 27.09away · Ilves2:3
- 25.09away · Jokerit2:1
Head to head
- 14.03.2026TPS Turku — Assat2:5
- 13.03.2026Assat — TPS Turku6:2
- 15.11.2025Assat — TPS Turku2:1 OT
- 14.11.2025TPS Turku — Assat3:4
- 15.02.2025Assat — TPS Turku6:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Jukurit | 14 | 6 | +7 | 24 |
| 3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Assat | 12 | 6 | +3 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Karpat | 13 | 5 | +1 | 22 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Hameenlinna | 12 | 4 | -7 | 18 |
| 11, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | TPS Turku | 11 | 5 | +4 | 16 |
| 12, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Pelicans | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
Liiga on the same day
- 79211The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.0
- 60401The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
- 51491The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.9
- 60401The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
- 63371The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2
- 37632The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →