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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK

Karaganda — Gornyak Rudny

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Model prediction for 20 October

Karaganda59%
Draw in regulation19%
Gornyak Rudny23%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Karaganda are clear favourites: 70% to win including overtime and shootout.

6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 61%.

Why

  • Karaganda are more dangerous in attack: 3.6 expected goals against 2.4.

Facts

  • League table: Karaganda — No. 5, 24 pts; Gornyak Rudny — No. 4, 25 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Last 5 meetings: Karaganda 3 wins, Gornyak Rudny 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Karaganda — Gornyak Rudny3.6–2.4
Karaganda to win (incl. OT and shootout)70%
Gornyak Rudny to win (incl. OT and shootout)30%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)61%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)39%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Karaganda
  • Karaganda goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Karaganda

  • 11.10away · Kulager1:2 SO
  • 10.10away · Kulager3:1
  • 07.10away · Gornyak Rudny4:1
  • 06.10away · Gornyak Rudny3:5
  • 02.10Pavlodar9:0

Gornyak Rudny

  • 12.10away · Almaty2:5
  • 11.10away · Almaty3:0
  • 07.10Karaganda1:4
  • 06.10Karaganda5:3
  • 03.10Aktobe7:1

Head to head

  • 07.10.2026Gornyak Rudny — Karaganda1:4
  • 06.10.2026Gornyak Rudny — Karaganda5:3
  • 06.03.2026Karaganda — Gornyak Rudny3:2 OT
  • 03.03.2026Gornyak Rudny — Karaganda1:4
  • 01.03.2026Gornyak Rudny — Karaganda3:2 OT

Full record: 22 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, PlayoffsKokshetau18131464–43+2127
4, PlayoffsGornyak Rudny18121571–44+2725
5, PlayoffsKaraganda18112573–44+2924
6, PlayoffsKulager1894564–52+1222

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • AktobeKulager
    2The model's most likely outcome: 218%Model's score: 1:45.6
  • Beibarys AtyrauNomad Astana
    2The model's most likely outcome: 218%Model's score: 1:45.5
  • KokshetauPavlodar
    1The model's most likely outcome: 12%Model's score: 7:18.5
  • AlmatyTorpedo
    2The model's most likely outcome: 215%Model's score: 1:45.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →