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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK

Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana

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Model prediction for 20 October

Beibarys Atyrau17%
Draw in regulation17%
Nomad Astana65%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Nomad Astana are clear favourites: 78% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.

Why

  • Nomad Astana are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 2.0.

Facts

  • League table: Beibarys Atyrau — No. 9, 8 pts; Nomad Astana — No. 1, 34 pts. A gap of 26 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Beibarys Atyrau 0 wins, Nomad Astana 5.
  • Days of rest before the match: Beibarys Atyrau 7, Nomad Astana 9.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana2.0–3.5
Beibarys Atyrau to win (incl. OT and shootout)22%
Nomad Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)78%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)52%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Beibarys Atyrau
  • Beibarys Atyrau goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Beibarys Atyrau

  • 13.10away · Aktobe1:2
  • 12.10away · Aktobe1:2
  • 07.10Almaty5:3
  • 06.10Almaty1:4
  • 02.10Torpedo2:9

Nomad Astana

  • 11.10away · Kokshetau4:2
  • 10.10away · Kokshetau2:3 OT
  • 07.10away · Torpedo3:2 SO
  • 06.10away · Torpedo3:2 OT
  • 02.10Kulager5:4 SO

Head to head

  • 24.09.2026Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana1:2
  • 23.09.2026Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana1:3
  • 22.01.2026Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana0:8
  • 10.10.2025Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana1:2 OT
  • 09.10.2025Beibarys Atyrau — Nomad Astana3:6

Full record: 16 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, PlayoffsNomad Astana18162083–36+4734
2, PlayoffsTorpedo18132388–36+5228
8, PlayoffsAktobe18411345–83-389
9Beibarys Atyrau18321338–59-218
10Pavlodar18011719–140-1211

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • AktobeKulager
    2The model's most likely outcome: 218%Model's score: 1:45.7
  • KaragandaGornyak Rudny
    1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 4:26.0
  • KokshetauPavlodar
    1The model's most likely outcome: 12%Model's score: 7:18.5
  • AlmatyTorpedo
    2The model's most likely outcome: 215%Model's score: 1:45.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →