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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK

Karpat — Hameenlinna

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Model prediction for 28 October

Karpat50%
Draw in regulation22%
Hameenlinna28%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Karpat are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • Karpat are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

  • League table: Karpat — No. 4, 22 pts; Hameenlinna — No. 10, 18 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Hameenlinna: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Karpat 1 win, Hameenlinna 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Karpat — Hameenlinna2.8–2.1
Karpat to win (incl. OT and shootout)62%
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)38%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Karpat
  • Karpat goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Karpat

  • 10.10away · Jukurit1:2 OT
  • 09.10away · Pelicans3:2 OT
  • 07.10Kiekko-Espoo8:7 OT
  • 03.10away · Hameenlinna1:2 OT
  • 02.10away · Kiekko-Espoo3:1

Hameenlinna

  • 10.10KooKoo5:3
  • 09.10away · Assat3:2 SO
  • 03.10Karpat2:1 OT
  • 02.10JYP2:1
  • 29.09away · Jokerit0:3

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Hameenlinna — Karpat2:1 OT
  • 07.03.2026Hameenlinna — Karpat6:3
  • 06.03.2026Hameenlinna — Karpat3:2 OT
  • 18.10.2025Karpat — Hameenlinna1:2
  • 17.10.2025Karpat — Hameenlinna5:2

Full record: 15 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAssat12612330–27+322
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarpat13523335–34+122
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsJYP10700330–25+521
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsHameenlinna12430528–35-718
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku11501529–25+416

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • IFK HelsinkiIlvespreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
  • JukuritLukkopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6
  • JYPTapparapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.6
  • Kiekko-EspooTPS Turkupreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • KooKooAssatpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
  • PelicansSaiPapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →