PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Burabai

Kokshetau — Nomad Astana

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

2:4Came true
Kokshetau36%
Draw in regulation22%
Nomad Astana42%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:4: the model's most likely outcome, Nomad Astana to win (53% incl. overtime), came true.

Nomad Astana are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.1 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.6.
  • Kokshetau: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Facts

  • Kokshetau: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Kokshetau 2 wins, Nomad Astana 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kokshetau — Nomad Astana2.5–2.6
Kokshetau to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Nomad Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kokshetau
  • Kokshetau goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Kokshetau

  • 10.10Nomad Astana3:2 OT
  • 07.10away · Kulager4:3
  • 06.10away · Kulager4:3
  • 03.10Almaty3:2
  • 02.10Almaty1:2

Nomad Astana

  • 10.10away · Kokshetau2:3 OT
  • 07.10away · Torpedo3:2 SO
  • 06.10away · Torpedo3:2 OT
  • 02.10Kulager5:4 SO
  • 01.10Kulager4:1

Head to head

  • 10.10.2026Kokshetau — Nomad Astana3:2 OT
  • 07.02.2026Kokshetau — Nomad Astana1:5
  • 06.02.2026Kokshetau — Nomad Astana3:4 OT
  • 15.12.2025Kokshetau — Nomad Astana2:1
  • 14.12.2025Kokshetau — Nomad Astana0:6

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, PlayoffsNomad Astana18162083–36+4734
2, PlayoffsTorpedo18132388–36+5228
3, PlayoffsKokshetau18131464–43+2127
4, PlayoffsGornyak Rudny18121571–44+2725

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • KokshetauKaraganda14 October · Kazakhstan Championship
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.2
  • AktobeNomad Astana16 October · Kazakhstan Championship
    2The model's most likely outcome: 212%Model's score: 2:56.3

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • AlmatyGornyak Rudny
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.7
  • KulagerKaraganda
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 2:1 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:4.5.6
  • TorpedoPavlodar
    1The most likely outcome came true: 10%Final score 13:0. Model's score: 12:1.10.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →