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KHL · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Arena-2000 Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Dinamo Minsk

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Model prediction and result

6:1Came true
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl41%
Draw in regulation24%
Dinamo Minsk35%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 6:1: the model's most likely outcome, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (53% incl. overtime), came true.

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.2 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 28%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Dinamo Minsk2.2–2.0
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
Dinamo Minsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)28%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)72%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lokomotiv Yaroslavl
  • Lokomotiv Yaroslavl goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

  • 05.10away · Bars Kazan2:0
  • 03.10away · Dinamo Minsk3:4
  • 30.09Novosibirsk3:1
  • 27.09away · Novosibirsk2:1
  • 25.09away · Khabarovsk1:3

Dinamo Minsk

  • 08.10SKA St. Petersburg4:2
  • 05.10Nizhny Novgorod1:2 SO
  • 03.10Lokomotiv Yaroslavl4:3
  • 01.10CSKA Moscow1:4
  • 28.09Lada5:4

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Dinamo Minsk — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl4:3
  • 15.03.2026Dinamo Minsk — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:1 SO
  • 21.02.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Dinamo Minsk5:4 SO
  • 12.02.2026Dinamo Minsk — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl4:2
  • 21.01.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Dinamo Minsk2:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceLokomotiv Yaroslavl14110338–23+1522
4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCherepovets1592435–31+420
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1581646–47-117
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1565442–48-617
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana1480654–40+1416

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • ShanghaiDinamo Minsk12 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
  • CherepovetsLokomotiv Yaroslavl15 October · KHL
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.2

KHL on the same day

  • VladivostokLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
  • Tractor ChelyabinskNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
  • Barys AstanaAvangard Omsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:4.5.0
  • Bars KazanCherepovets
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:2.5.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →