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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 17 October, MSK

Lukko — Kiekko-Espoo

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Model prediction for 17 October

Lukko48%
Draw in regulation22%
Kiekko-Espoo30%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Lukko are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • Lukko are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lukko — Kiekko-Espoo2.8–2.3
Lukko to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Kiekko-Espoo to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lukko
  • Lukko goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lukko

  • 09.10away · Ilves5:1
  • 03.10Assat2:5
  • 02.10away · Assat3:0
  • 26.09away · KalPa2:1
  • 24.09Tappara3:2

Kiekko-Espoo

  • 09.10JYP6:1
  • 07.10away · Karpat7:8 OT
  • 03.10away · Ilves4:6
  • 02.10Karpat1:3
  • 30.09TPS Turku4:2

Head to head

  • 11.03.2026Lukko — Kiekko-Espoo1:2 SO
  • 18.02.2026Kiekko-Espoo — Lukko2:3 OT
  • 27.09.2025Lukko — Kiekko-Espoo3:2 SO
  • 26.09.2025Kiekko-Espoo — Lukko4:2
  • 22.01.2025Kiekko-Espoo — Lukko2:4

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsJYP10700330–25+521
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo13513442–32+1020
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSaiPa11521330–20+1020
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLukko11610429–23+620
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara11520432–24+819

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • AssatTPS Turku
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • IlvesJokerit
    1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.0
  • KalPaPelicans
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
  • KarpatKooKoo
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.9
  • SaiPaIFK Helsinki
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • JukuritTappara
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →