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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Lulea — Djurgarden

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Model prediction for 24 October

Lulea52%
Draw in regulation21%
Djurgarden26%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lulea are clear favourites: 65% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • Lulea are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

  • League table: Lulea — No. 9, 10 pts; Djurgarden — No. 11, 9 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Last 4 meetings: Lulea 2 wins, Djurgarden 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lulea — Djurgarden2.8–2.1
Lulea to win (incl. OT and shootout)65%
Djurgarden to win (incl. OT and shootout)35%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lulea
  • Lulea goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lulea

  • 10.10Timra2:3 OT
  • 08.10Malmo2:3
  • 03.10away · Orebro4:1
  • 01.10away · Linkoping2:0
  • 29.09away · Skelleftea1:6

Djurgarden

  • 10.10Linkoping5:1
  • 08.10Orebro2:1
  • 03.10away · Frolunda2:4
  • 01.10Farjestad0:4
  • 26.09away · Timra2:3 OT

Head to head

  • 07.03.2026Djurgarden — Lulea4:1
  • 30.12.2025Djurgarden — Lulea3:4
  • 13.11.2025Lulea — Djurgarden3:2 OT
  • 25.09.2025Lulea — Djurgarden2:4

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMalmo7212218–22-410
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea8301420–26-610
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsVaxjo8211425–30-59
11Djurgarden8211416–22-69
12HV 718121424–29-58

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

SHL on the same day

  • IF BjorklovenSkellefteapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.2
  • LinkopingOrebropreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • MalmoTimrapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:24.9
  • BrynasRoglepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
  • FarjestadVaxjopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.2
  • HV 71Frolundapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →