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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Enteria Arena

Pardubice — Trinec

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Model prediction and result

5:4 OTCame true
Pardubice50%
Draw in regulation21%
Trinec29%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:4 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Pardubice to win (62% incl. overtime), came true.

Pardubice are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • Pardubice are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Pardubice — Trinec2.9–2.3
Pardubice to win (incl. OT and shootout)62%
Trinec to win (incl. OT and shootout)38%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Pardubice
  • Pardubice goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Pardubice

  • 09.10away · Vitkovice3:2
  • 04.10Sparta Prague6:4
  • 02.10Plzen4:2
  • 29.09Ceske Budejovice5:2
  • 27.09away · Kometa Brno5:3

Trinec

  • 09.10Mountfield HK5:2
  • 04.10away · Olomouc9:0
  • 02.10Litvinov3:2
  • 29.09Kladno6:4
  • 27.09away · Liberec3:1

Head to head

  • 28.04.2026Trinec — Pardubice4:5 OT
  • 26.04.2026Pardubice — Trinec2:1
  • 23.04.2026Trinec — Pardubice4:2
  • 22.04.2026Trinec — Pardubice5:4 OT
  • 19.04.2026Pardubice — Trinec4:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsTrinec10901049–23+2628
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPardubice11810247–31+1626
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarlovy Vary9600322–16+618

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • TrinecMlada Boleslav16 October · Czech Extraliga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • OlomoucPardubice18 October · Czech Extraliga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 1:35.2

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • Sparta PragueVitkovice
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
  • Mlada BoleslavLitvinov
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.6
  • Ceske BudejoviceLiberec
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • Karlovy VaryKladno
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8
  • Kometa BrnoPlzen
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 1:2.4.4
  • Mountfield HKOlomouc
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →