AHL (American Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Blue Cross Arena
Rochester Americans — Syracuse Crunch
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 7:1: the model's most likely outcome, Syracuse Crunch to win (55% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 55% fails in about 45 matches out of 100 on average.
Syracuse Crunch are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.3 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 49%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.8.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Rochester Americans 2 wins, Syracuse Crunch 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rochester Americans — Syracuse Crunch | 2.5–2.8 | |
| Rochester Americans to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Syracuse Crunch to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 49% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 51% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Rochester Americans
- Rochester Americans goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Form
- 04.10away · Belleville Senators2:3 SO
- 03.10Toronto Marlies3:1
- 26.04away · Toronto Marlies2:4
- 25.04Toronto Marlies4:0
- 23.04away · Toronto Marlies0:5
- 03.10away · Laval Rocket1:6
- 03.10away · Laval Rocket2:0
- 03.05Cleveland Monsters1:2 OT
- 02.05Cleveland Monsters3:4 OT
- 26.04away · Cleveland Monsters4:1
Head to head
- 09.04.2026Syracuse Crunch — Rochester Americans2:3
- 29.03.2026Rochester Americans — Syracuse Crunch3:2 SO
- 29.03.2026Syracuse Crunch — Rochester Americans5:3
- 21.03.2026Rochester Americans — Syracuse Crunch3:5
- 02.03.2026Syracuse Crunch — Rochester Americans3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 4 | 2 | +8 | 5 | .625 |
| 14 | Rochester Americans | 4 | 2 | +6 | 5 | .625 |
| 15 | San Diego Gulls | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 | .625 |
| 28 | San Jose Barracuda | 4 | 1 | -9 | 2 | .250 |
| 29 | Syracuse Crunch | 4 | 1 | -10 | 2 | .250 |
| 30 | Providence Bruins | 5 | 1 | -5 | 2 | .200 |
Next matches
- Utica CometsRochester Americans11 October · AHL50501The most likely outcome came true: 122%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
- Syracuse CrunchBelleville Senators11 October · AHL65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
AHL on the same day
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.2
- 50501The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%4:5SOFinal score 4:5 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.6.1
- 66341The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 4:2.5.3
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
- 43572The most likely outcome did not happen: 220%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:4.6.2
- 64361The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:3SOFinal score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.3
- 61391The most likely outcome came true: 120%6:3Final score 6:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.9
- 56441The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%4:7Final score 4:7. Model's score: 4:2.6.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →