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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Catena Arena

Rogle — HV 71

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

4:3Came true
Rogle60%
Draw in regulation20%
HV 7121%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:3: the model's most likely outcome, Rogle to win (72% incl. overtime), came true.

Rogle are clear favourites: 72% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.

Why

  • Rogle are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 1.9.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Rogle 4 wins, HV 71 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rogle — HV 713.1–1.9
Rogle to win (incl. OT and shootout)72%
HV 71 to win (incl. OT and shootout)28%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)44%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Rogle
  • Rogle goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Rogle

  • 03.10away · Vaxjo2:3
  • 01.10Timra4:1
  • 26.09Linkoping2:1 OT
  • 24.09away · Farjestad1:2
  • 22.09Djurgarden3:1

HV 71

  • 03.10away · Farjestad1:3
  • 01.10Orebro2:1 OT
  • 29.09away · IF Bjorkloven2:4
  • 26.09away · Vaxjo5:7
  • 24.09Skelleftea4:3 OT

Head to head

  • 19.02.2026Rogle — HV 713:4 SO
  • 28.12.2025Rogle — HV 713:1
  • 25.10.2025HV 71 — Rogle0:5
  • 18.10.2025HV 71 — Rogle2:3
  • 25.02.2025Rogle — HV 714:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsBrynas8400423–18+512
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsRogle8310420–18+211
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsOrebro8302318–22-411
11Djurgarden8211416–22-69
12HV 718121424–29-58
13, Relegation play-offTimra8120515–22-77

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • HV 71Brynas10 October · SHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:3.5.5
  • SkellefteaRogle10 October · SHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.8

SHL on the same day

  • BrynasIF Bjorkloven
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.3
  • DjurgardenOrebro
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.1
  • LuleaMalmo
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • SkellefteaFarjestad
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:2.5.2
  • TimraFrolunda
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.6
  • VaxjoLinkoping
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →