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KHL · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Ufa-Arena

Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk

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Model prediction and result

2:4Missed
Salavat Ufa57%
Draw in regulation21%
Novosibirsk23%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:4: the model's most likely outcome, Salavat Ufa to win (69% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 69% fails in about 31 matches out of 100 on average.

Salavat Ufa are clear favourites: 69% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.

Why

  • Salavat Ufa are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 1.8.

Facts

  • Novosibirsk: 3 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Salavat Ufa 4 wins, Novosibirsk 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk2.8–1.8
Salavat Ufa to win (incl. OT and shootout)69%
Novosibirsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)31%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)36%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)64%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Salavat Ufa
  • Salavat Ufa goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Salavat Ufa

  • 30.09away · Sochi3:6
  • 28.09away · Nizhny Novgorod3:0
  • 26.09away · Dynamo Moscow3:1
  • 23.09Magnitogorsk3:4
  • 20.09Spartak Moscow3:1

Novosibirsk

  • 30.09away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:3
  • 27.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2
  • 24.09Bars Kazan2:3 SO
  • 20.09away · Sochi5:1
  • 18.09away · Dinamo Minsk1:4

Head to head

  • 24.02.2026Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk3:2 OT
  • 23.10.2025Novosibirsk — Salavat Ufa2:5
  • 01.10.2025Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk5:2
  • 24.09.2025Novosibirsk — Salavat Ufa3:2 SO
  • 08.04.2025Salavat Ufa — Novosibirsk2:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceKhabarovsk1581624–22+217
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1681748–51-317
13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1665543–51-817
14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBars Kazan1571734–35-115
15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNovosibirsk1663737–47-1015
16, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceYekaterinburg1462635–36-114

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • NiznekamskNovosibirsk4 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • CSKA MoscowSalavat Ufa5 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 124%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.4.2

KHL on the same day

  • Avangard OmskLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 117%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
  • YekaterinburgKhabarovsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
  • Bars KazanTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • NiznekamskBarys Astana
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.4.9
  • Spartak MoscowMagnitogorsk
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →