KHL · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Ice Palace

SKA St. Petersburg — Cherepovets

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Model prediction and result

2:5Missed
SKA St. Petersburg45%
Draw in regulation22%
Cherepovets33%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:5: the model's most likely outcome, SKA St. Petersburg to win (57% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.

SKA St. Petersburg are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 49%.

Why

  • SKA St. Petersburg are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.5.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: SKA St. Petersburg 4 wins, Cherepovets 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: SKA St. Petersburg — Cherepovets2.9–2.5
SKA St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)57%
Cherepovets to win (incl. OT and shootout)43%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)49%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap SKA St. Petersburg
  • SKA St. Petersburg goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

SKA St. Petersburg

  • 03.10Vladivostok6:5 SO
  • 29.09away · CSKA Moscow5:6
  • 27.09away · Barys Astana5:3
  • 25.09away · Tractor Chelyabinsk4:3
  • 15.09Shanghai7:2

Cherepovets

  • 03.10Shanghai2:1 OT
  • 01.10Vladivostok3:4 SO
  • 26.09Sochi3:1
  • 24.09Yekaterinburg5:2
  • 21.09away · Khabarovsk4:1

Head to head

  • 13.03.2026SKA St. Petersburg — Cherepovets5:0
  • 18.02.2026SKA St. Petersburg — Cherepovets2:3 SO
  • 05.02.2026Cherepovets — SKA St. Petersburg1:3
  • 26.11.2025Cherepovets — SKA St. Petersburg4:6
  • 17.02.2025Cherepovets — SKA St. Petersburg3:5

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceLokomotiv Yaroslavl14110338–23+1522
4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCherepovets1592435–31+420
5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNizhny Novgorod1491440–25+1519
7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceShanghai1281336–29+717
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSKA St. Petersburg1481547–44+317
9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceKhabarovsk1481523–20+317

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:2, exactly right.5.6
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.1

KHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →