KHL · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Ice Palace
SKA St. Petersburg — Cherepovets
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2:5Missed
In short
Final score 2:5: the model's most likely outcome, SKA St. Petersburg to win (57% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.
SKA St. Petersburg are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 49%.
Why
- SKA St. Petersburg are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.5.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: SKA St. Petersburg 4 wins, Cherepovets 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: SKA St. Petersburg — Cherepovets | 2.9–2.5 | |
| SKA St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| Cherepovets to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 49% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap SKA St. Petersburg
- SKA St. Petersburg goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 03.10Vladivostok6:5 SO
- 29.09away · CSKA Moscow5:6
- 27.09away · Barys Astana5:3
- 25.09away · Tractor Chelyabinsk4:3
- 15.09Shanghai7:2
- 03.10Shanghai2:1 OT
- 01.10Vladivostok3:4 SO
- 26.09Sochi3:1
- 24.09Yekaterinburg5:2
- 21.09away · Khabarovsk4:1
Head to head
- 13.03.2026SKA St. Petersburg — Cherepovets5:0
- 18.02.2026SKA St. Petersburg — Cherepovets2:3 SO
- 05.02.2026Cherepovets — SKA St. Petersburg1:3
- 26.11.2025Cherepovets — SKA St. Petersburg4:6
- 17.02.2025Cherepovets — SKA St. Petersburg3:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Lokomotiv Yaroslavl | 14 | 11 | +15 | 22 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Cherepovets | 15 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Nizhny Novgorod | 14 | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Shanghai | 12 | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | SKA St. Petersburg | 14 | 8 | +3 | 17 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Khabarovsk | 14 | 8 | +3 | 17 |
Next matches
- Dinamo MinskSKA St. Petersburg8 October · KHL64361The most likely outcome came true: 120%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:2, exactly right.5.6
- Nizhny NovgorodCherepovets8 October · KHL57431The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.1
KHL on the same day
- 66341The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
- 46542The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%4:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:2.4.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →