KHL · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Megasport Arena
Spartak Moscow — Barys Astana
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3:4 SOMissed
In short
Final score 3:4 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Spartak Moscow to win (71% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 71% fails in about 29 matches out of 100 on average.
Spartak Moscow are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects plenty of goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.
Why
- Spartak Moscow are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 2.2.
Facts
- Spartak Moscow: 5 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Spartak Moscow 4 wins, Barys Astana 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Spartak Moscow — Barys Astana | 3.4–2.2 | |
| Spartak Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 71% | |
| Barys Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 29% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 54% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Spartak Moscow
- Spartak Moscow goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 02.10Magnitogorsk0:2
- 30.09Tractor Chelyabinsk2:4
- 26.09Yekaterinburg2:4
- 24.09Avangard Omsk1:2 OT
- 20.09away · Salavat Ufa1:3
- 02.10away · Niznekamsk5:4 OT
- 30.09away · Bars Kazan1:4
- 27.09SKA St. Petersburg3:5
- 26.09Niznekamsk3:6
- 22.09away · Dynamo Moscow4:1
Head to head
- 28.02.2026Spartak Moscow — Barys Astana5:3
- 05.12.2025Barys Astana — Spartak Moscow4:3 OT
- 04.12.2024Barys Astana — Spartak Moscow2:4
- 03.10.2024Spartak Moscow — Barys Astana4:2
- 10.02.2024Barys Astana — Spartak Moscow1:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Dinamo Minsk | 15 | 6 | -6 | 17 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Barys Astana | 14 | 8 | +14 | 16 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 7 | +8 | 16 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Bars Kazan | 15 | 7 | -1 | 15 |
Next matches
- SochiSpartak Moscow7 October · KHL28722The most likely outcome came true: 219%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 1:3.5.2
- Barys AstanaAvangard Omsk10 October · KHL35652The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%5:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:4.5.0
KHL on the same day
- 59411The most likely outcome came true: 123%3:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
- 71291The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%0:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →