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KHL · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Megasport Arena

Spartak Moscow — Magnitogorsk

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
Spartak Moscow36%
Draw in regulation21%
Magnitogorsk43%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Magnitogorsk to win (54% incl. overtime), came true.

Magnitogorsk are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.7 and 2.9.

Facts

  • Spartak Moscow: 4 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Spartak Moscow 2 wins, Magnitogorsk 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Spartak Moscow — Magnitogorsk2.7–2.9
Spartak Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)46%
Magnitogorsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)54%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Spartak Moscow
  • Spartak Moscow goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Spartak Moscow

  • 30.09Tractor Chelyabinsk2:4
  • 26.09Yekaterinburg2:4
  • 24.09Avangard Omsk1:2 OT
  • 20.09away · Salavat Ufa1:3
  • 18.09away · Tractor Chelyabinsk3:1

Magnitogorsk

  • 30.09away · Shanghai1:4
  • 28.09away · Avangard Omsk5:1
  • 26.09Bars Kazan2:1
  • 23.09away · Salavat Ufa4:3
  • 20.09Niznekamsk6:2

Head to head

  • 16.09.2026Magnitogorsk — Spartak Moscow2:3
  • 05.10.2025Spartak Moscow — Magnitogorsk2:6
  • 23.09.2025Magnitogorsk — Spartak Moscow3:2 OT
  • 05.10.2024Spartak Moscow — Magnitogorsk2:5
  • 25.09.2024Magnitogorsk — Spartak Moscow3:4

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceMagnitogorsk16121351–30+2125
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
6, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceNiznekamsk1582547–38+918
7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSpartak Moscow1582538–29+918
8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceShanghai1281336–29+717

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Spartak MoscowBarys Astana4 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 3:4 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
  • MagnitogorskVladivostok5 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.3

KHL on the same day

  • Avangard OmskLada
    1The most likely outcome came true: 117%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:1, exactly right.5.2
  • Salavat UfaNovosibirsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
  • YekaterinburgKhabarovsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.4.6
  • Bars KazanTractor Chelyabinsk
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • NiznekamskBarys Astana
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.4.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →