NHL · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Rangers
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
New York Rangers are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 55%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.7 and 2.9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Rangers | 2.7–2.9 | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 46% | |
| New York Rangers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 54% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 55% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Toronto Maple Leafs
- Toronto Maple Leafs goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 14.10away · Utah Mammoth4:5
- 11.10away · Colorado Avalanche6:3
- 09.10away · Vegas Golden Knights3:4 SO
- 07.10Nashville Predators5:4 OT
- 04.10Ottawa Senators2:3
- 14.10Tampa Bay Lightning4:1
- 12.10Vancouver Canucks6:2
- 10.10away · Washington Capitals1:3
- 07.10New York Islanders5:2
- 05.10Utah Mammoth4:2
Head to head
- 26.03.2026Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Rangers4:3
- 06.03.2026New York Rangers — Toronto Maple Leafs6:2
- 17.10.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — New York Rangers2:1 OT
- 21.03.2025New York Rangers — Toronto Maple Leafs3:4
- 01.03.2025New York Rangers — Toronto Maple Leafs2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Carolina Hurricanes | 8 | 6 | +12 | 13 |
| 2, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New York Rangers | 8 | 6 | +13 | 12 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Vegas Golden Knights | 8 | 6 | +10 | 12 |
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 17, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
NHL on the same day
- Boston BruinsNashville Predatorspreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.5
- New Jersey DevilsAnaheim Duckspreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.7
- Ottawa SenatorsSan Jose Sharkspreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:25.8
- Pittsburgh PenguinsFlorida Pantherspreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:26.2
- New York IslandersLos Angeles Kingspreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.0
- Dallas StarsWinnipeg Jetspreliminary59411The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.1
- St. Louis BluesVegas Golden Knightspreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.3
- Calgary FlamesMinnesota Wildpreliminary39612The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →