Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 10 October, 20:45 MSK · Swiss Life Arena

Zurich — Fribourg

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Model prediction and result

5:4 OTCame true

Zurich49%

Draw in regulation22%

Fribourg29%

Model estimate at 20:04 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:4 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Zurich to win (61% incl. overtime), came true.

Zurich are favourites: 61% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 35%.

Why

Zurich are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.0.
Zurich: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Facts

Zurich: 5 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Zurich 0 wins, Fribourg 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Zurich — Fribourg		2.6–2.0
Zurich to win (incl. OT and shootout)		61%
Fribourg to win (incl. OT and shootout)		39%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		35%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		65%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Zurich
Zurich goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Zurich

09.10away · Lugano3:2 OT
03.10Lausanne3:2 OT
29.09Biel6:3
26.09EHC Kloten3:2
25.09away · Ambri-Piotta6:3

Fribourg

08.10Ajoie7:2
03.10Ambri-Piotta1:2
02.10away · EHC Kloten4:1
29.09Bern5:2
26.09Langnau Tigers4:3 OT

Head to head

24.01.2026Zurich — Fribourg3:4 SO
20.12.2025Fribourg — Zurich4:2
24.10.2025Zurich — Fribourg1:2 OT
23.09.2025Fribourg — Zurich3:2 SO
14.02.2025Zurich — Fribourg2:3 OT

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Zurich	10	7	3	0	0	42–24	+18	27
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Servette	11	5	2	2	2	33–29	+4	21
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Langnau Tigers	11	5	1	2	3	41–34	+7	19
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Fribourg	11	4	2	2	3	38–29	+9	18
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

20:45
ZurichRapperswil-Jona16 October · National League
7327
1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:15.1
20:45
FribourgLugano17 October · National League
6238
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0

National League on the same day

20:45
AjoieLangnau Tigers
3862
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.2
20:45
Ambri-PiottaBern
5050
2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
20:45
BielLugano
5446
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
20:45
Rapperswil-JonaLausanne
5149
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
20:45
ServetteDavos
5446
1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:2, exactly right.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →