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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 22 October, MSK

Zvezda Moscow — AKM

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Model prediction for 22 October

Zvezda Moscow42%
Draw in regulation23%
AKM35%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Zvezda Moscow are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 40%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Zvezda Moscow — AKM2.5–2.3
Zvezda Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)54%
AKM to win (incl. OT and shootout)46%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)40%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)60%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Zvezda Moscow
  • Zvezda Moscow goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Zvezda Moscow

  • 12.10away · Bars2:5
  • 10.10away · Almetyevsk5:3
  • 08.10away · CSK VVS3:2
  • 02.10Dinamo St. Petersburg2:4
  • 30.09SKA-VMF St. Petersburg1:3

AKM

  • 12.10Magnitka Magnitogorsk2:3
  • 10.10Orsk3:0
  • 05.10away · Perm0:3
  • 03.10away · Toros Neftekamsk3:0
  • 01.10away · Izhevsk3:4 OT

Head to head

  • 12.03.2026AKM — Zvezda Moscow4:1
  • 03.09.2025Zvezda Moscow — AKM1:2
  • 14.12.2024AKM — Zvezda Moscow6:3
  • 02.12.2024Zvezda Moscow — AKM2:1 OT
  • 01.12.2023Zvezda Moscow — AKM0:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
5, PlayoffsOrsk1283135–22+1319
6, PlayoffsAKM1483343–32+1119
7, PlayoffsMetallurg Novokuznetsk1483327–16+1119
24Olympia1451837–42-511
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211
26Kurgan1234519–33-1410

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • Toros NeftekamskOmskie Kryliapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.5
  • IzhevskKurganpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.4
  • KhimikKalugapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:13.8
  • OlympiaRubin Tyumenpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.1
  • Dinamo St. PetersburgRyazanpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →