VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 22 October, MSK

Olympia — Rubin Tyumen

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Model prediction for 22 October

Olympia29%
Draw in regulation23%
Rubin Tyumen48%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Rubin Tyumen are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 27%.

Why

  • Rubin Tyumen are more dangerous in attack: 2.3 expected goals against 1.8.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Olympia — Rubin Tyumen1.8–2.3
Olympia to win (incl. OT and shootout)38%
Rubin Tyumen to win (incl. OT and shootout)62%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)27%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)73%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Olympia
  • Olympia goals
  • Overtime chance
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Form

Olympia

  • 13.10away · Dyn. Altay4:1
  • 11.10away · Metallurg Novokuznetsk0:2
  • 09.10away · Krasnoyarsk4:3
  • 06.10away · HC Norilsk2:3
  • 01.10Kaluga2:3 OT

Rubin Tyumen

  • 13.10Tambov3:2 OT
  • 11.10Buran Voronezh4:3 SO
  • 03.10away · Omskie Krylia3:4
  • 01.10away · Kurgan3:2 SO
  • 27.09HC Yugra4:3

Head to head

  • 22.12.2025Olympia — Rubin Tyumen3:2 SO
  • 15.11.2025Rubin Tyumen — Olympia4:3 SO
  • 24.02.2025Olympia — Rubin Tyumen1:4
  • 26.09.2024Rubin Tyumen — Olympia4:1

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
18Ryazan1554630–32-214
19Rubin Tyumen1270529–32-314
20Dinamo St. Petersburg1361637–42-513
23Dyn. Altay1252525–30-512
24Olympia1451837–42-511
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • 2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.5
  • IzhevskKurganpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.4
  • KhimikKalugapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:13.8
  • Zvezda MoscowAKMpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →