VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Zvezda Moscow — Kaluga
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kaluga are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 3.7 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 19%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 1.7 and 1.9.
Facts
- League table: Zvezda Moscow — No. 25, 11 pts; Kaluga — No. 8, 19 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Zvezda Moscow — Kaluga | 1.8–1.9 | |
| Zvezda Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Kaluga to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 19% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 81% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Zvezda Moscow
- Zvezda Moscow goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Bars2:5
- 10.10away · Almetyevsk5:3
- 08.10away · CSK VVS3:2
- 02.10Dinamo St. Petersburg2:4
- 30.09SKA-VMF St. Petersburg1:3
- 12.10Orsk1:2 SO
- 07.10away · Perm3:1
- 05.10away · Toros Neftekamsk1:0
- 03.10away · Izhevsk3:1
- 01.10away · Olympia3:2 OT
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Playoffs | Metallurg Novokuznetsk | 14 | 8 | +11 | 19 |
| 8, Playoffs | Kaluga | 13 | 8 | +10 | 19 |
| 9, Playoffs | Khimik | 14 | 8 | +18 | 18 |
| 24 | Olympia | 14 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 25 | Zvezda Moscow | 14 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 26 | Kurgan | 12 | 3 | -14 | 10 |
VHL on the same day
- Dinamo St. PetersburgAKMpreliminary59411The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.3
- SKA-VMF St. PetersburgRyazanpreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.1
- PermOmskie Kryliapreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5
- Toros NeftekamskKurganpreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.3
- IzhevskRubin Tyumenpreliminary44562The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.3
- OlympiaHC Yugrapreliminary22782The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 1:33.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →