Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Saturday, 10 October, MSK

Arnaldi M. — Fritz T.

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
Arnaldi M.27%
Fritz T.73%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Fritz T. to win (73%), came true.

Fritz T. are clear favourites: 73% against 27% for the opponent.

Over 22.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Arnaldi M. 1572, Fritz T. 1791.

Probabilities

Games over 22.548%
Games under 22.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Arnaldi M. games
  • Fritz T. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Arnaldi M.

  • 08.10Tomic B.2:0
  • 03.10Alcaraz C.0:2
  • 30.09Sakamoto R.2:1

Fritz T.

  • 01.10Munar J.1:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Tsitsipas S.Fritz T.12 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.20.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.20.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 73% will not happen in roughly 27 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →