Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Saturday, 10 October, MSK

Ugo Carabelli C. — Auger-Aliassime F.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
Ugo Carabelli C.14%
Auger-Aliassime F.86%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Auger-Aliassime F. to win (86%), came true.

Auger-Aliassime F. are clear favourites: 86% against 14% for the opponent.

Over 20.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Ugo Carabelli C. 1495, Auger-Aliassime F. 1771.

Probabilities

Games over 20.551%
Games under 20.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Ugo Carabelli C. games
  • Auger-Aliassime F. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Ugo Carabelli C.

  • 08.10Simakin I.2:1
  • 28.09Hijikata R.0:2
  • 24.09Cina F.0:2

Auger-Aliassime F.

  • 30.09Khachanov K.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.20.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 86% will not happen in roughly 14 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →