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Tennis: ATP, Tokyo, hard · Saturday, 3 October, MSK

Berrettini M. — Vallejo D.

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Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Berrettini M.72%
Vallejo D.28%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Berrettini M. to win (72%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 72% fails in about 28 matches out of 100 on average.

Berrettini M. are clear favourites: 72% against 28% for the opponent.

Over 23.5 games — 49%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Berrettini M. 1697, Vallejo D. 1531.

Probabilities

Games over 23.549%
Games under 23.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Berrettini M. games
  • Vallejo D. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Berrettini M.

  • 01.10Davidovich Fokina A.2:1

Vallejo D.

  • 01.10Jodar R.2:0
  • 29.09Faria J.2:1
  • 28.09Daniel T.2:0
  • 26.09Wong C.1:2
  • 24.09Cui J.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Lehecka J.Vallejo D.4 October · ATP · Tokyo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.23.5
  • Kovacevic A.Berrettini M.7 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.23.5

ATP on the same day

  • Shapovalov D.Tabilo A.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • De Minaur A.Halys Q.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • Alcaraz C.Arnaldi M.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5
  • Rublev A.Safiullin R.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • Humbert U.Lehecka J.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • Medvedev D.Struff J-L.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • Zverev A.Shang J.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • Cerundolo F.Mensik J.
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →