Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Thursday, 8 October, MSK

Hurkacz H. — Duckworth J.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Hurkacz H.73%
Duckworth J.27%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Hurkacz H. to win (73%), came true.

Hurkacz H. are clear favourites: 73% against 27% for the opponent.

Over 23.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Hurkacz H. 1736, Duckworth J. 1523.

Probabilities

Games over 23.548%
Games under 23.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Hurkacz H. games
  • Duckworth J. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Hurkacz H.

  • 05.10De Minaur A.0:1
  • 04.10Khachanov K.2:0
  • 02.10Gea A.2:1
  • 01.10Tien L.2:1
  • 29.09Davidovich Fokina A.0:2

Duckworth J.

  • 24.09Sonego L.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Djokovic N.Hurkacz H.9 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 73% will not happen in roughly 27 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →