Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Thursday, 8 October, MSK

Tomic B. — Arnaldi M.

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
Tomic B.36%
Arnaldi M.64%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Arnaldi M. to win (64%), came true.

Arnaldi M. are clear favourites: 64% against 36% for the opponent.

Over 22.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Tomic B. 1535, Arnaldi M. 1564.

Probabilities

Games over 22.551%
Games under 22.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Tomic B. games
  • Arnaldi M. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Tomic B.

  • 06.10Skatov T.2:0
  • 05.10Atmane T.1:1
  • 23.09Sun F.0:2
  • 22.09Te R.2:1

Arnaldi M.

  • 03.10Alcaraz C.0:2
  • 30.09Sakamoto R.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Arnaldi M.Fritz T.10 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →