Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Thursday, 8 October, MSK

Ugo Carabelli C. — Simakin I.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Ugo Carabelli C.59%
Simakin I.41%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Ugo Carabelli C. to win (59%), came true.

Ugo Carabelli C. are slightly stronger: 59% against 41%.

Over 22.5 games — 50%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Ugo Carabelli C. 1482, Simakin I. 1500.

Probabilities

Games over 22.550%
Games under 22.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Ugo Carabelli C. games
  • Simakin I. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Ugo Carabelli C.

  • 28.09Hijikata R.0:2
  • 24.09Cina F.0:2

Simakin I.

  • 06.10Te R.2:0
  • 05.10Pavlovic L.2:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →