Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Sunday, 11 October, MSK

Hurkacz H. — Zhou Y.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Hurkacz H.79%
Zhou Y.21%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Hurkacz H. to win (79%), came true.

Hurkacz H. are clear favourites: 79% against 21% for the opponent.

Over 22.5 games — 49%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Hurkacz H. 1749, Zhou Y. 1470.

Probabilities

Games over 22.549%
Games under 22.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Hurkacz H. games
  • Zhou Y. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Hurkacz H.

  • 09.10Djokovic N.2:0
  • 08.10Duckworth J.2:0
  • 05.10De Minaur A.0:1
  • 04.10Khachanov K.2:0
  • 02.10Gea A.2:1

Zhou Y.

  • 09.10Musetti L.2:1
  • 07.10Bellucci M.2:1
  • 28.09Carreno-Busta P.0:2
  • 24.09Cerundolo J. M.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Hurkacz H.Davidovich Fokina A.13 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.24.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 79% will not happen in roughly 21 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →