Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Sunday, 11 October, MSK

De Minaur A. — Sakamoto R.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
De Minaur A.77%
Sakamoto R.23%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, De Minaur A. to win (77%), came true.

De Minaur A. are clear favourites: 77% against 23% for the opponent.

Over 21.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: De Minaur A. 1787, Sakamoto R. 1501.

Facts

  • Sakamoto R.: 4 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Games over 21.551%
Games under 21.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • De Minaur A. games
  • Sakamoto R. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

De Minaur A.

  • 06.10Djokovic N.0:1
  • 05.10Hurkacz H.1:0
  • 04.10Rublev A.2:1
  • 03.10Halys Q.2:1
  • 01.10Navone M.2:0

Sakamoto R.

  • 09.10Rublev A.2:0
  • 07.10Trungelliti M.2:0
  • 06.10Jacquet K.2:1
  • 05.10Hong S. C.2:0
  • 30.09Arnaldi M.1:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • De Minaur A.Khachanov K.13 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 77% will not happen in roughly 23 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →