Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Sunday, 11 October, MSK

Cerundolo F. — Mensik J.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
Cerundolo F.47%
Mensik J.53%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Mensik J. to win (53%), came true.

Evenly matched: Cerundolo F. 47%, Mensik J. 53%.

Over 22.5 games — 51%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Cerundolo F. 1705, Mensik J. 1754.

Probabilities

Games over 22.551%
Games under 22.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Cerundolo F. games
  • Mensik J. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Cerundolo F.

  • 09.10Safiullin R.2:0
  • 04.10Medvedev D.0:2
  • 03.10Mensik J.2:0
  • 01.10Van De Zandschulp B.2:1

Mensik J.

  • 09.10Kecmanovic M.2:0
  • 03.10Cerundolo F.0:2
  • 01.10Bublik A.2:0

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Cerundolo F. — Mensik J.2:0

Next match

  • Gea A.Mensik J.13 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.23.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →