Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Sunday, 11 October, MSK

Bublik A. — Nakashima B.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Missed
Bublik A.44%
Nakashima B.56%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Nakashima B. to win (56%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.

Nakashima B. are slightly stronger: 56% against 44%.

Over 23.5 games — 50%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Bublik A. 1705, Nakashima B. 1698.

Probabilities

Games over 23.550%
Games under 23.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Bublik A. games
  • Nakashima B. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Bublik A.

  • 09.10Machac T.2:0
  • 01.10Mensik J.0:2

Nakashima B.

  • 09.10Berrettini M.2:0
  • 01.10Humbert U.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Zverev A.Bublik A.13 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.21.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →