Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Saturday, 10 October, MSK

Medvedev D. — Struff J-L.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Medvedev D.84%
Struff J-L.16%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Medvedev D. to win (84%), came true.

Medvedev D. are clear favourites: 84% against 16% for the opponent.

Over 20.5 games — 52%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Medvedev D. 1828, Struff J-L. 1589.

Probabilities

Games over 20.552%
Games under 20.548%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Medvedev D. games
  • Struff J-L. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Medvedev D.

  • 05.10Djokovic N.0:1
  • 04.10Cerundolo F.2:0
  • 03.10Struff J-L.2:0
  • 02.10Carreno-Busta P.2:0
  • 29.09Rublev A.2:0

Struff J-L.

  • 08.10Landaluce M.2:0
  • 03.10Medvedev D.0:2
  • 30.09Tirante T. A.2:0

Head to head

  • 03.10.2026Medvedev D. — Struff J-L.2:0

Next match

  • Medvedev D.Svrcina D.12 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.20.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 84% will not happen in roughly 16 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →