Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Monday, 12 October, MSK

Medvedev D. — Svrcina D.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Medvedev D.87%
Svrcina D.13%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Medvedev D. to win (87%), came true.

Medvedev D. are clear favourites: 87% against 13% for the opponent.

Over 19.5 games — 50%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Medvedev D. 1830, Svrcina D. 1535.

Probabilities

Games over 19.550%
Games under 19.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Medvedev D. games
  • Svrcina D. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Medvedev D.

  • 10.10Struff J-L.2:1
  • 05.10Djokovic N.0:1
  • 04.10Cerundolo F.2:0
  • 03.10Struff J-L.2:0
  • 02.10Carreno-Busta P.2:0

Svrcina D.

  • 10.10Etcheverry T. M.2:1
  • 08.10Norrie C.2:1
  • 06.10Nishioka Y.0:0
  • 05.10Harris B.2:1
  • 24.09Hijikata R.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Medvedev D.Tsitsipas S.14 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:021.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.20.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 87% will not happen in roughly 13 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →