Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Monday, 12 October, MSK

Paul T. — Vacherot V.

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Paul T.57%
Vacherot V.43%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Paul T. to win (57%), came true.

Paul T. are slightly stronger: 57% against 43%.

Over 22.5 games — 50%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Paul T. 1766, Vacherot V. 1682.

Probabilities

Games over 22.550%
Games under 22.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Paul T. games
  • Vacherot V. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Paul T.

  • 10.10Vallejo D.2:0
  • 30.09Tabilo A.0:2

Vacherot V.

  • 10.10Baez S.2:0
  • 05.10Lehecka J.0:2
  • 04.10Fils A.2:1
  • 02.10Tsitsipas S.2:1
  • 30.09Blockx A.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Paul T.Bergs Z.14 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:022.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.20.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →