Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, qualifying, hard · Monday, 5 October, MSK

Pavlovic L. — Simakin I.

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Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
Pavlovic L.53%
Simakin I.47%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Pavlovic L. to win (53%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 53% fails in about 47 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Pavlovic L. 53%, Simakin I. 47%.

Over 23.5 games — 49%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Pavlovic L. 1466, Simakin I. 1500.

Probabilities

Games over 23.549%
Games under 23.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Pavlovic L. games
  • Simakin I. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Pavlovic L.

  • 22.09Muller A.1:2

Simakin I.

No past matches in the data yet.

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Te R.Simakin I.6 October · ATP · Shanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →