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Tennis: ATP, Beijing, hard · Saturday, 3 October, MSK

Rublev A. — Safiullin R.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Rublev A.68%
Safiullin R.32%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Rublev A. to win (68%), came true.

Rublev A. are clear favourites: 68% against 32% for the opponent.

Over 24.5 games — 49%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Rublev A. 1717, Safiullin R. 1583.

Probabilities

Games over 24.549%
Games under 24.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Rublev A. games
  • Safiullin R. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Rublev A.

  • 01.10Griekspoor T.2:1
  • 29.09Medvedev D.0:2
  • 28.09Jacquet K.2:0
  • 27.09Gaston H.2:1
  • 25.09Hijikata R.2:0

Safiullin R.

  • 01.10Cobolli F.2:0
  • 28.09Medvedev D.0:2
  • 27.09Bu Y.2:0
  • 26.09Halys Q.2:1
  • 24.09Sun F.2:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • De Minaur A.Rublev A.4 October · ATP · Beijing
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • Safiullin R.Galarneau A.5 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5

ATP on the same day

  • Shapovalov D.Tabilo A.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.25.5
  • De Minaur A.Halys Q.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • Alcaraz C.Arnaldi M.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5
  • Berrettini M.Vallejo D.
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.23.5
  • Humbert U.Lehecka J.
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • Medvedev D.Struff J-L.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • Zverev A.Shang J.
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • Cerundolo F.Mensik J.
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →