Tennis: ATP, Tokyo, hard · Saturday, 3 October, MSK

Shapovalov D. — Tabilo A.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Shapovalov D.55%
Tabilo A.45%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Shapovalov D. to win (55%), came true.

Shapovalov D. are slightly stronger: 55% against 45%.

Over 25.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Shapovalov D. 1664, Tabilo A. 1626.

Probabilities

Games over 25.548%
Games under 25.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Shapovalov D. games
  • Tabilo A. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Shapovalov D.

  • 01.10Shimabukuro S.2:0
  • 28.09Hurkacz H.1:2
  • 27.09Mannarino A.2:1
  • 25.09Kopriva V.2:0
  • 24.09Griekspoor T.2:0

Tabilo A.

  • 30.09Paul T.2:0
  • 25.09Mannarino A.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • Alcaraz C.Shapovalov D.4 October · ATP · Tokyo
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • Tabilo A.Carreno-Busta P.10 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

ATP on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.23.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.24.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.24.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →