Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, qualifying, hard · Monday, 5 October, MSK

Shevchenko A. — Nishioka Y.

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Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Shevchenko A.56%
Nishioka Y.44%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Shevchenko A. to win (56%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.

Shevchenko A. are slightly stronger: 56% against 44%.

Over 22.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Shevchenko A. 1541, Nishioka Y. 1598.

Probabilities

Games over 22.548%
Games under 22.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Shevchenko A. games
  • Nishioka Y. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Shevchenko A.

  • 24.09Hurkacz H.0:2

Nishioka Y.

  • 28.09Tsitsipas S.0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Nishioka Y.Svrcina D.6 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.21.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.21.5
  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.23.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →