Tennis: ATP, Shanghai, hard · Monday, 12 October, MSK

Tsitsipas S. — Fritz T.

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Model prediction and result

2:1Missed
Tsitsipas S.36%
Fritz T.64%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Fritz T. to win (64%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 64% fails in about 36 matches out of 100 on average.

Fritz T. are clear favourites: 64% against 36% for the opponent.

Over 23.5 games — 48%.

Why

  • Rating on hard: Tsitsipas S. 1715, Fritz T. 1793.

Probabilities

Games over 23.548%
Games under 23.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • Games handicap
  • Sets handicap
  • First set
  • Tsitsipas S. games
  • Fritz T. games
  • Score in sets
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Form

Tsitsipas S.

  • 10.10Darderi L.2:0
  • 08.10Coppejans K.2:0
  • 02.10Vacherot V.1:2
  • 01.10Etcheverry T. M.2:1
  • 29.09Hijikata R.2:0

Fritz T.

  • 10.10Arnaldi M.2:0
  • 01.10Munar J.1:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next match

  • Medvedev D.Tsitsipas S.14 October · ATP · Shanghai
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:021.5

ATP on the same day

  • 2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.22.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.19.5
  • 2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:2.20.5
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.21.5
  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.22.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →