Peruvian Liga 1 · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
ADC Juan Pablo II — Deportivo Garcilaso
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: ADC Juan Pablo II 37%, Deportivo Garcilaso 35%, draw 28%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Deportivo Garcilaso are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated ADC Juan Pablo II higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- Last 3 meetings: ADC Juan Pablo II 0 wins, Deportivo Garcilaso 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: ADC Juan Pablo II — Deportivo Garcilaso What is xG? | 1.5–1.5 | |
| ADC Juan Pablo II not to lose | 65% | |
| Deportivo Garcilaso not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap ADC Juan Pablo II
- ADC Juan Pablo II goals
- Deportivo Garcilaso goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | ADC Juan Pablo II | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 12.7 | 17.9 |
| On target | 5.1 | 7.2 |
| Corners | 4.0 | 5.7 |
| Cards | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 45 |
Form
- 31.10away · Alianza Atlético0:1
- 27.10Sport Huancayo2:0
- 25.10away · Universitario0:3
- 17.10Sport Boys2:0
- 10.10away · Comerciantes Unidos1:1
- 02.11away · UTC Cajamarca3:2
- 28.10away · Alianza Atlético2:3
- 26.10Los Chankas4:1
- 18.10away · Melgar2:4
- 10.10Sport Huancayo0:1
Head to head
- 30.05.2026Deportivo Garcilaso — ADC Juan Pablo II4:1
- 13.10.2025ADC Juan Pablo II — Deportivo Garcilaso0:1
- 26.05.2025Deportivo Garcilaso — ADC Juan Pablo II4:0
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- Comerciantes UnidosSport Boyspreliminary4527281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →