Egyptian Premier League, round 6 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Alexandria Stadium
Al Ittihad Alexandria — El Gouna FC
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In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (35%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 35% fails in about 65 matches out of 100 on average.
Al Ittihad Alexandria are slightly stronger: 39% against 27%, draw 35%.
The model expects few goals: 1.7 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 25%, both teams to score — 35%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Al Ittihad Alexandria: 3 wins in a row; El Gouna FC: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Al Ittihad Alexandria 1 win, El Gouna FC 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Ittihad Alexandria — El Gouna FC What is xG? | 1.0–0.8 | |
| Al Ittihad Alexandria not to lose | 73% | |
| El Gouna FC not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 35% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 65% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 25% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 75% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al Ittihad Alexandria
- Al Ittihad Alexandria goals
- El Gouna FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.09away · Al Masry SC2:0
- 07.09Asyut Petroleum1:0
- 02.09away · Abo Qir Semad2:0
- 28.08Ceramica Cleopatra1:3
- 21.08away · Zamalek SC0:0
- 16.09Petrojet-Suez1:2
- 09.09away · Pyramids FC0:1
- 02.09Al Mokawloon Al Arab0:1
- 28.08away · Olympic El Qanah FC1:1
- 23.08Modern Sport FC1:1
Head to head
- 04.04.2026El Gouna FC — Al Ittihad Alexandria0:0
- 23.11.2025Al Ittihad Alexandria — El Gouna FC0:2
- 11.03.2025El Gouna FC — Al Ittihad Alexandria2:0
- 17.02.2025Al Ittihad Alexandria — El Gouna FC1:0
- 27.04.2024El Gouna FC — Al Ittihad Alexandria2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Modern Sport FC | 6 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad Alexandria | 6 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 6 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 6 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 18 | Abo Qir Semad | 6 | 1 | -8 | 3 |
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | -4 | 2 |
| 20 | Ghazl Al Mahalla | 6 | 0 | -9 | 1 |
Next matches
- El Gouna FCSmouha SC19 October · Egyptian Premier League363629XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.6
- Ghazl Al MahallaAl Ittihad Alexandria21 October · Egyptian Premier League · preliminary323435XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.9
Egyptian Premier League on the same day
- 403625XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:1.1.5
- 5329181The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 323137XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →