Brazilian Serie A, round 21 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Arena MRV
Atlético-MG — RB Bragantino
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético-MG to win (49%), came true.
Atlético-MG are clear favourites: 49% against 23% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético-MG are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético-MG — RB Bragantino What is xG? | 1.5–0.9 | |
| Atlético-MG not to lose | 77% | |
| RB Bragantino not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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- Handicap Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG goals
- RB Bragantino goals
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Form
- 19.09Chapecoense1:1
- 17.09Santos4:2
- 12.09Fluminense3:1
- 10.09away · Santos0:2
- 06.09away · São Paulo0:2
- 21.09away · Flamengo1:2
- 13.09away · Botafogo1:1
- 05.09Bahia2:3
- 30.08away · São Paulo1:2
- 23.08Grêmio1:0
Head to head
- 20.08.2026Atlético-MG — RB Bragantino2:2
- 13.08.2026RB Bragantino — Atlético-MG0:1
- 05.02.2026RB Bragantino — Atlético-MG1:0
- 17.11.2025RB Bragantino — Atlético-MG2:0
- 04.08.2025Atlético-MG — RB Bragantino2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
Next matches
- RB BragantinoMirassol8 October · Brasileirao4628261The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- Athletico ParanaenseAtlético-MG9 October · Brasileirao5027231The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →