Brazilian Serie A, round 29 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Estádio Mário Celso Petraglia
Athletico Paranaense — Atlético-MG
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In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Athletico Paranaense to win (50%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.
Athletico Paranaense are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Athletico Paranaense are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Athletico Paranaense — Atlético-MG What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| Athletico Paranaense not to lose | 77% | |
| Atlético-MG not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Athletico Paranaense
- Athletico Paranaense goals
- Atlético-MG goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 21.09Bahia2:1
- 12.09away · Coritiba3:3
- 06.09away · Cruzeiro1:3
- 30.08Fluminense3:3
- 25.08away · Botafogo3:2
- 04.10RB Bragantino1:0
- 19.09Chapecoense1:1
- 17.09Santos4:2
- 12.09Fluminense3:1
- 10.09away · Santos0:2
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Atlético-MG — Athletico Paranaense2:1
- 08.12.2024Atlético-MG — Athletico Paranaense1:0
- 17.11.2024Athletico Paranaense — Atlético-MG1:0
- 02.09.2023Athletico Paranaense — Atlético-MG1:1
- 24.05.2023Atlético-MG — Athletico Paranaense2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 4, Copa Libertadores | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | +11 | 51 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
Next matches
- Atlético-MGSantos11 October · Brasileirao5027231The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.7
- ChapecoenseAthletico Paranaense13 October · Brasileirao2327502The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
Brasileirao on the same day
- 2628462The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:2.2.7
- 751691The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.0
- 5526191The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →