Peruvian Liga 1 · Monday, 16 November, (UTC+3)
Cusco FC — Asociación Deportiva Tarma
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 16 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Cusco FC are clear favourites: 64% against 15% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cusco FC are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
- Cusco FC are 230 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Cusco FC 3 wins, Asociación Deportiva Tarma 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cusco FC — Asociación Deportiva Tarma What is xG? | 1.9–0.8 | |
| Cusco FC not to lose | 85% | |
| Asociación Deportiva Tarma not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cusco FC
- Cusco FC goals
- Asociación Deportiva Tarma goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Cusco FC | Asociación Deportiva Tarma |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 15.2 | 15.5 |
| On target | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| Corners | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| Cards | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| Possession, % | 55 | 54 |
Form
- 01.11Sport Boys0:1
- 29.10away · Los Chankas1:0
- 24.10Sporting Cristal3:1
- 16.10away · Sport Huancayo1:2
- 12.10Alianza Lima1:2
- 03.11away · Comerciantes Unidos2:2
- 28.10Deportivo Moquegua2:0
- 23.10away · Atlético Grau1:1
- 16.10away · Los Chankas1:2
- 10.10FC Cajamarca0:0
Head to head
- 30.05.2026Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Cusco FC1:2
- 23.09.2025Cusco FC — Asociación Deportiva Tarma0:2
- 28.04.2025Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Cusco FC2:1
- 17.09.2024Asociación Deportiva Tarma — Cusco FC1:2
- 15.04.2024Cusco FC — Asociación Deportiva Tarma3:2
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- Deportivo MoqueguaAtlético Graupreliminary4431251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →