Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Independiente del Valle — Universidad Católica (ECU)
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Independiente del Valle are clear favourites: 63% against 16% for the opponent, draw 21%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Independiente del Valle are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Independiente del Valle 3 wins, Universidad Católica (ECU) 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Independiente del Valle — Universidad Católica (ECU) What is xG? | 2.1–1.0 | |
| Independiente del Valle not to lose | 84% | |
| Universidad Católica (ECU) not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Independiente del Valle
- Independiente del Valle goals
- Universidad Católica (ECU) goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10Aucas2:1
- 18.09away · Flamengo1:1
- 14.09away · Libertad (ECU)3:2
- 11.09Flamengo0:2
- 06.09CSD Macará3:1
- 11.10CSD Macará0:1
- 21.09away · LDU de Quito1:2
- 15.09Orense2:1
- 07.09away · Delfín1:0
- 03.09Aucas1:1
Head to head
- 29.08.2026Independiente del Valle — Universidad Católica (ECU)2:2
- 02.05.2026Universidad Católica (ECU) — Independiente del Valle2:3
- 15.12.2025Universidad Católica (ECU) — Independiente del Valle0:1
- 09.11.2025Independiente del Valle — Universidad Católica (ECU)0:2
- 29.06.2025Universidad Católica (ECU) — Independiente del Valle0:3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →