Kazakhstan Premier League, round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK
Kaisar Kyzylorda — Ordabasy Shymkent
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1:4Came true
In short
Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Ordabasy Shymkent to win (61%), came true.
Ordabasy Shymkent are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ordabasy Shymkent are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kaisar Kyzylorda — Ordabasy Shymkent What is xG? | 0.7–1.6 | |
| Kaisar Kyzylorda not to lose | 39% | |
| Ordabasy Shymkent not to lose | 85% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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Form
- 18.09away · FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk1:1
- 12.09Atyrau1:0
- 06.09away · FC Altai Oskemen0:2
- 29.08Okzhetpes Kokshetau2:3
- 25.08away · Tobol Kostanay2:3
- 17.09away · Atyrau3:0
- 12.09FC Astana1:0
- 05.09away · Okzhetpes Kokshetau1:2
- 29.08FC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk3:0
- 15.08FC Altai Oskemen3:1
Head to head
- 20.03.2026Ordabasy Shymkent — Kaisar Kyzylorda2:0
- 10.08.2025Kaisar Kyzylorda — Ordabasy Shymkent1:1
- 11.05.2025Ordabasy Shymkent — Kaisar Kyzylorda5:0
- 31.08.2024Kaisar Kyzylorda — Ordabasy Shymkent2:1
- 29.06.2024Ordabasy Shymkent — Kaisar Kyzylorda2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy Shymkent | 27 | 20 | +36 | 64 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 27 | 18 | +32 | 60 |
| 13 | Irtysh Pavlodar | 26 | 6 | -10 | 26 |
| 14 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 27 | 4 | -14 | 24 |
| 15 | FC Altai Oskemen | 27 | 5 | -14 | 23 |
Next matches
- Zhetysu TaldykorganKaisar Kyzylorda17 October · Kazakhstan Premier League363033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.2
- AktobeOrdabasy Shymkent17 October · Kazakhstan Premier League2627462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- 3028422The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.6
- 4328281The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →