Kazakhstan Premier League, round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK
Ulytau — Okzhetpes Kokshetau
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2:0Missed
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Okzhetpes Kokshetau to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
Okzhetpes Kokshetau are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Okzhetpes Kokshetau are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ulytau — Okzhetpes Kokshetau What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Ulytau not to lose | 58% | |
| Okzhetpes Kokshetau not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ulytau
- Ulytau goals
- Okzhetpes Kokshetau goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 18.09away · Aktobe2:2
- 13.09FC Altai Oskemen0:3
- 06.09away · Tobol Kostanay1:3
- 29.08Zhetysu Taldykorgan3:0
- 15.08away · Kairat Almaty1:3
- 18.09Zhenis3:1
- 13.09away · Irtysh Pavlodar1:2
- 05.09Ordabasy Shymkent2:1
- 29.08away · Kaisar Kyzylorda3:2
- 16.08away · Atyrau2:0
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Okzhetpes Kokshetau — Ulytau2:1
- 19.07.2025Okzhetpes Kokshetau — Ulytau1:0
- 19.04.2025Ulytau — Okzhetpes Kokshetau0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | +9 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 27 | 13 | +4 | 45 |
| 6 | FC Yelimay | 26 | 10 | 0 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 27 | 11 | -1 | 37 |
| 8 | Ulytau | 27 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
| 9 | Zhenis | 27 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
Next matches
- Okzhetpes KokshetauFC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovsk17 October · Kazakhstan Premier League5425211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- FC YelimayUlytau18 October · Kazakhstan Premier League6023171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- 4328281The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 1524612The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →