Uzbekistan Super League, round 26 · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
Neftchi Fargona — Bunyodkor Tashkent
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Neftchi Fargona are clear favourites: 77% against 9% for the opponent, draw 14%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Neftchi Fargona are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Neftchi Fargona — No. 1, 52 pts; Bunyodkor Tashkent — No. 15, 22 pts. A gap of 30 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Neftchi Fargona — Bunyodkor Tashkent What is xG? | 2.7–0.8 | |
| Neftchi Fargona not to lose | 91% | |
| Bunyodkor Tashkent not to lose | 23% | |
| No draw | 86% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 67% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 33% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Neftchi Fargona
- Neftchi Fargona goals
- Bunyodkor Tashkent goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 07.10Xorazm2:2
- 20.09away · Lokomotiv Tashkent1:0
- 09.09Surkhon-20112:1
- 04.09away · Nasaf Qarshi2:6
- 23.08Sogdiana3:0
- 09.10away · Pakhtakor Tashkent1:3
- 19.09Buxoro2:1
- 09.09away · Nasaf Qarshi0:3
- 04.09Surkhon-20110:1
- 26.08away · Lokomotiv Tashkent1:4
Head to head
- 14.04.2026Bunyodkor Tashkent — Neftchi Fargona0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 23 | 16 | +33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 23 | 15 | +21 | 52 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 23 | 5 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Bunyodkor Tashkent | 23 | 7 | -16 | 22 |
| 16 | Mashal Muborak | 23 | 1 | -36 | 4 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 77% will not happen in roughly 23 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →