Major League Soccer (MLS), round 30 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK

Philadelphia Union — Charlotte FC

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Model prediction for 17 October

Philadelphia Union61%
Draw22%
Charlotte FC17%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Philadelphia Union are clear favourites: 61% against 17% for the opponent, draw 22%.

3.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 63%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Philadelphia Union are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • League table: Philadelphia Union — No. 12, 42 pts; Charlotte FC — No. 8, 46 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Philadelphia Union: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Philadelphia Union 1 win, Charlotte FC 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Philadelphia Union — Charlotte FC What is xG?2.2–1.2
Philadelphia Union not to lose83%
Charlotte FC not to lose39%
No draw78%
Both teams to score: yes63%
Both teams to score: no37%
Total over 2.564%
Total under 2.536%

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  • Handicap Philadelphia Union
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Form

Philadelphia Union

  • 11.10Real Salt Lake2:1
  • 27.09Orlando City4:2
  • 20.09away · Sporting Kansas City4:3
  • 14.09away · San Diego FC5:0
  • 10.09FC Cincinnati5:0

Charlotte FC

  • 11.10FC Dallas3:2
  • 27.09Chicago Fire FC0:1
  • 20.09away · DC United2:1
  • 13.09away · FC Cincinnati3:3
  • 10.09away · CF Montréal2:1

Head to head

  • 05.04.2026Charlotte FC — Philadelphia Union2:1
  • 19.10.2025Charlotte FC — Philadelphia Union2:0
  • 15.06.2025Philadelphia Union — Charlotte FC2:1
  • 23.06.2024Philadelphia Union — Charlotte FC0:2
  • 26.05.2024Charlotte FC — Philadelphia Union0:0

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
7, Playoffs: top 7 in each conferenceSan Jose Earthquakes28137850–40+1046
8, Playoffs: top 7 in each conferenceCharlotte FC28137850–40+1046
9, Playoffs: top 7 in each conferenceNew England Revolution281441045–39+646
11, Playoffs: top 7 in each conferenceLos Angeles FC29119944–31+1342
12, Playoffs: top 7 in each conferencePhiladelphia Union281261056–45+1142
13, Playoffs: top 7 in each conferenceSeattle Sounders FC28118938–35+341

Season 2026

Full table

MLS on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →